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Tirgus panorāma. 17 Janvāris 2017

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I. Market focus:

17/01/2017

At the beginning of Tuesday’s session the attention of the markets’ participants was focused on the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, who will unveil today a plan for the UK’s exit from the EU. Media reports about 12-point plan, calling it bold. May, apparently, intends to stick to announced earlier statements "Brexit means Brexit". The key issues of the Brexit process are gaining control of Britain’s borders and signing major free trade deals. Britain intends to regain full control over its borders, while retaining access to the European market. But, as the European officials led by German Chancellor noted many times, these are mutually exclusive conditions. It is expected that the exit process will be launched in March 2017, when the British government pledges to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The speech of the British prime minister is expected to start at 11:45 GMT. If the expectations regarding support for the hard exit plan are met, the pound is likely to come under pressure.

Theresa May’s speech will be a key event on Tuesday, while market reaction to macroeconomic reports, which are scheduled to be published today, can be muted. Among the economic data, which are set to be released on Tuesday, particular attention should be paid to the British statistics on inflation (at 09:30 GMT) and the data on the indicators of sentiment in the business environment from the ZEW (at 10:00 GMT). In addition, the comments from the Fed officials William Dudley (at 13:45 GMT) and Lael Brainard (at 15:00 GMT) can be important.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney in his speech at the London School of Economics said on Monday that consumer consumption momentum is solid but that the evidence supports the Monetary Policy Committees' (MPC) expectations that the UK’s economic growth is set to slow because of Brexit. The governor stressed that could go up or down as the BoE strikes a difficult balance between supporting growth and managing inflation. “Monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target,” he stated. Mr. Carney also reminded that the bank’s MPC had reiterated that they were choosing a period of somewhat higher consumer price inflation in exchange for a more modest increase in unemployment, but noted that there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated.

  • The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) reported on Monday its latest quarterly survey of business opinion showed the businesses continue to expect good times ahead. The NZIER’s Business Confidence Index, remained high at the end of 2016, with a net 28 percent of businesses expecting an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months compared to from 26 percent previously. That was  highest level since early 2014. The NZIER noted that, although there was a modest softening in demand in their own business, activity indicators remain higher than a year ago. This indicates continued solid momentum in the New Zealand economy, which should provide a buffer against the downside risks from unexpected events both here and abroad.

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced on Tuesday that the Australian home loans rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in November, following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent decrease in October (previously -0.8 percent). According to the report, most of the advance was concentrated in loans to buy new dwellings (+3.3 percent m-o-m) as well as in loans for construction of a new dwellings (+2.3 percent m-o-m). In the meantime, loans to purchase owner occupied housing grew 0.9 percent m-o-m, while loans to purchase established dwellings gained 0.6 percent m-o-m.

  • The World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting will be held from from January 17 through 20 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. It is expected, that this year's gathering will be attended by around 3,000 leaders from politics, business, finance and science. The main theme up for  discussion will be “Responsive and Responsible Leadership”.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded significantly higher, reaching its high of January 13, amid declines in the Asian markets, sales of the U.S. dollar, as well as the expectations of reports on the indicators of sentiment in the business environment from the ZEW. In addition, the market participants preferred to be cautious ahead of the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is expected to unveil her plan for the UK’s exit from the EU. Recall, May has recently stated that Britain would make a definitive break with the EU, while still working to get the best possible deal in the trading relationship with bloc. Investors also await the comments from the Fed officials William Dudley and Lael Brainard. Experts expect, the major focus will be on the dynamics of the currency pair EUR/GBP. For the USD, the next important event is expected to be the inauguration of Trump, which will be held on January 20. Resistance level – $1.0800 (psychological level). Support level – $1.0453 (low of January 11).

The currency pair GBP/USD rose significantly, paring almost all its yesterday's losses, as investors awaited the the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, which is expected to unveil a plan for the UK’s exit from the EU. Media reports about a 12-point plan, calling it bold. May, apparently, intends to stick to announced earlier statements "Brexit means Brexit". The key issues of the Brexit process are gaining control of Britain’s borders and signing major free trade deals. Britain intends to regain full control over its borders, while retaining access to the European market. But, as the European officials noted many times, these are mutually exclusive conditions. Resistance level - $1.2330 (high of January 13). Support level - $1.1986 (low of January 16).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose markedly, approaching to its nine-week high, due to the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar and expectations of the speech of the British Prime Minister May about the Brexit plan. Some influence on the pair performance also was provided by data from Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that the Australian home loans rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in November, following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent decrease in October (previously -0.8 percent). According to the report, most of the advance was concentrated in loans to buy new dwellings (+3.3 percent m-o-m) as well as in loans for construction of a new dwellings (+2.3 percent m-o-m). In the meantime, loans to purchase owner occupied housing grew 0.9 percent m-o-m, while loans to purchase established dwellings gained 0.6 percent m-o-m. Resistance level - AUD0.7579 (high of November 15). Support level - AUD0.7329 (low of January 10).

The currency pair USD/JPY declined sharply, reaching its low of December 8. Experts note that the decline is due to an aggressive sale of the dollar across the board, as well as increased demand for safe-haven assets in anticipation of speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May. In addition, some influence on the pair was caused by the Japanese data, which showed the country’s industrial production rose 1.5 percent m-o-m in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after remaining unchanged in October. That suggests that activity in the world's third-largest economy continues to pick up. In y-o-y terms, Japan’s industrial output rose 4.6 percent in November, following a 1.4 percent drop in October and in line with estimates. That was the strongest growth since March 2014. Resistance level - Y115.44 (high of  January 13). Support level - Y112.87 (low of December 5).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

Closed


Dow

Closed


NASDAQ

Closed


Nikkei

18,813.53

-1.48%

Hang Seng

22,840.97

+0.54%

Shanghai

3,108.77

+0.17%


U.S. stock markets were closed lower on Monday.

Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Monday, as the market participants awaited the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, which would reveal the Brexit plan. The market were also affected by uncertainty over the policies of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is to take office on Friday. The Japanese stock benchmark underperformed, weighted down by strong yen, hurting the Japan’s export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.35% (-1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.31% (-1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.31% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in February settled at $52.35 (-0.04%). The crude oil prices fell, dragged down by weaker USD and statements from energy minister of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-Falih and  investor scepticism about the effectiveness of oil cut deal due to rising U.S. production. The minister  said Saudi Arabia would adhere strictly to its commitment to cut output under the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced yesterday it had increased the forecast for the average oil price for 2017 by $0.6 to $51.2 per barrel. In 2018, the Fund projects, the average oil price will reach $53 per barrel.

Gold traded at $1211.40 (+0.73%). Gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar weakened and the demand for safe-haven assets increased ahead of the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, unveiling the Brexit plan. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.47 percent to 101.05. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. In addition, the gold prices receive support ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year as this period is traditionally marked by strong physical demand from China and India.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


09:30

United Kingdom

Retail Price Index

09:30

United Kingdom

Producer Price Index - Input

09:30

United Kingdom

Producer Price Index - Output

09:30

United Kingdom

HICP

10:00

Eurozone

ZEW Economic Sentiment

10:00

Germany

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

11:45

United Kingdom

Prime Minister May Speech on Brexit

13:30

U.S.

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index

13:45

U.S.

FOMC Member Dudley Speak

15:00

U.S.

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks


Tirgus fokuss

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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