Meklēt

FX& CFD TIRDZNIECĪBAI IR AUGSTS RISKA LĪMENIS

Tirgus panorāma. 17 Decembris 2018

UZMANĪBU: “Tirgus panorāmas” materiāls ir pieejams pēc 6 stundām pēc tā publicēšanas. Lai operatīvi saņemtu šo materiālu, iesakām parakstīties.

I. Market focus

A relative calm prevailed in the global financial markets at the beginning of the new week. In the forex market, the main currency pairs traded during the Asian session in relatively narrow ranges. The directional movement was observed in the currency pair USD/JPY, which slightly strengthened, as the yen weakened on the back of the positive dynamics of the stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region.
The focus of market participants continues to be the situation around Brexit. There appeared several reports on this topic over the weekend, but they did not provide any new information. Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said that Britain and the European Union should prepare for a second Brexit referendum because parliament will probably fail to agree on a divorce deal and the public will need to break the deadlock. British Prime Minister Theresa May answered to this that another vote “would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics”.
Markets await the Fed meeting on monetary policy, which is the key scheduled event of the week. The outcomes of the meeting will be announced on Wednesday and, according to economists’ forecasts, the Fed will hike the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.50 percent at its last meeting in 2018.
As for Monday’s session, there are no scheduled releases of important macroeconomic reports. The most significant publication on Monday will be statistics on the trade balance and the final data on the consumer price index for the Eurozone (10:00 GMT) as well as the U.S. statistics on the housing market index from the NAHB (15:30 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

The Commerce Department announced on Friday that sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in November, following a revised 1.1 percent m-o-m advance in October (originally a gain of 0.8 percent m-o-m). Economists had expected total sales would increase 0.2 percent m-o-m in November. The November surge in retail sales was mainly attributable to higher sales of furniture, electronics and a range of other goods, which, however, were partially offset by a decline in trade at gasoline stations on cheaper fuel. Excluding auto, retail sales also rose 0.2 percent m-o-m after a revised 1.0 percent m-o-m jump in the previous month (originally a climb of 0.7 percent m-o-m), matching economists’ forecast. Meanwhile, closely watched core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, and are used in GDP calculations, increased 0.9 percent m-o-m last month, following a revised 0.7 percent m-o-m advance in October (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m increase).  In y-o-y terms, the U.S. retail sales rose 4.2 percent in November, decelerating growth pace from October’s revised increase of 4.8 percent (originally a 4.6 percent gain).


The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that the U.S. industrial production rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent m-o-m decrease in October (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.3 percent m-o-m in November. According to the report, manufacturing production was unchanged, while the output of mining increased 1.7 percent, and the index for utilities gained 3.3 percent. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.4 percentage point m-o-m in November to 78.5 percent. That was 0.1 percentage points below economists’ forecast and 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average. In y-o-y terms, the industrial production surged 3.9 percent in November, following a downwardly revised 3.8 percent increase in the prior month (originally a 4.1 percent gain).


Preliminary data released by IHS Markit on Friday indicated that the U.S. private sector growth in December expanded at the weakest pace in just over one-and-a-half years. According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 53.9 this month from 55.3 in November, signaling the weakest overall improvement in operating conditions since November 2017. Economists had expected the reading to drop to at 55.1. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. December’s decrease in the headline PMI mainly reflected weaker contributions from new orders and employment growth at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) decreased to 53.4 this month, down from 54.7 in the prior month, indicating a slowdown in the service sector activity. Economists had expected the reading to remain at 54.7. The survey noted that new work at service sector firms rose at the weakest pace since April 2017, which contributed to a fall in unfinished business for the first time in four months. Overall, IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index came in at 53.6 in December, down from 54.7 in the previous month, pointing to the weakest expansion of private sector output since May 2017. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit noted, “The flash PMIs bring signs of the U.S. economy ending 2018 on a softer note. With business activity expanding at the slowest rate for one and a half years, the surveys indicate that the pace of economic growth has faded to 2.0 percent in December, albeit closer to 2.5 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. Importantly, although growth remains relatively robust, momentum is being lost and is likely to continue to fade as we move into 2019. New order inflows hit the lowest since April of last year and expectations regarding future business growth have slipped to the lowest for two-and-a-half years. The surveys reveal greater caution in relation to spending amid uncertainty about the economic outlook, linked in part to growing geopolitical concerns and trade wars.”


The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released on Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by four to 873 during the week ended December 14. In the prior week, the oil-rig count declined by 10. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also decreased by four to 1,071, as the gas rig count was steady at 198 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 0. The U.S. rig count is up 141 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 930.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market

The currency pair EUR/USD traded almost unchanged, due to the lack of a new catalyst and stabilization of the U.S. currency. Investors were also cautious ahead of the publication of inflation data for the Eurozone and the monthly report on the German economy from the Bundesbank. According to economists’ forecasts, the consumer price index in November fell by 0.2 percent m-o-m but rose by 2.0 percent y-o-y. Meanwhile, the market’s focus started gradually shifting to the Fed meeting (December 18-19), at which the U.S. regulator is expected to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year. But a more interesting aspect would be what the Fed says about its plans for 2019. Resistance level - $1.1400 (high of December 11). Support level - $1.1267 (low of November 28).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level due to the lack of new drivers. The pair remained under pressure due to the Brexit-related uncertainty. With almost empty economic calendar ahead, investors will focus today on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets, as well as news on Brexit. Market participants will also be preparing for a meeting of the Bank of England (BoE0, set to be held on Thursday. Analysts expect that all 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)  will vote to keep the interest rate at 0.75 percent since the uncertainty around Brexit requires a “wait and see” approach. Resistance level - $1.2789 (high of December 7). Support level - $1.2480 (low of December 11 and 12).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded in a narrow range, near the opening level. Investors continued to digest the reports that China (Australia main trading partner) will temporarily suspend additional 25 percent tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles and auto parts starting January 1, 2019. The Chinese finance ministry also said on its website that it hopes China and the United States can speed up negotiations to remove all additional tariffs on each other’s goods. “This is a good signal that China and the United States are on track to solve the trade war,” said Wang Cun, director of the China Automobile Dealers Association’s import committee. “Carmakers might be ordering a large number of imported cars now.” Resistance level - AUD0.7245 (high of December 13). Support level - AUD0.7151 (low of November 14).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose moderately, as the demand for "safe" yen weakened due to improved risk appetite. Investors also began adjusting their positions ahead of the Fed’s meeting and statements by Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday. The U.S. regulator is expected to raise rates and only marginally adjust its economic forecasts. Despite this, the Fed policymakers may remove their claims of "further gradual increase" in interest rates and take a wait-and-see approach to future policy decisions. Most likely, the forecast of the Fed management will assume two more rate increases in 2019, rather than three, as expected in September. Resistance level - Y113.82 (high of December 3). Support level - Y113.13 (low of December 12).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,599.95

-1.91%

Dow

24,100.51

-2.02%

NASDAQ

6,910.67

-2.26%

Nikkei

21,506.88

+0.62%

Hang Seng

26,116.69

+0.08%

Shanghai

2,597.97

+0.16%

S&P/ASX

5,658.30

+1.00%


U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower on Friday, as weak economic data from China and Europe exacerbated global growth fears. Focus also was on a raft of the U.S. economic data. The Commerce Department announced that sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in November, following a revised 1.1 percent m-o-m advance in October (originally a gain of 0.8 percent m-o-m). Economists had expected total sales would increase 0.2 percent m-o-m in November. Meanwhile, closely watched core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, and are used in GDP calculations, increased 0.9 percent m-o-m last month, following a revised 0.7 percent m-o-m advance in October (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m increase).  In y-o-y terms, the U.S. retail sales rose 4.2 percent in November, decelerating growth pace from October’s revised increase of 4.8 percent (originally a 4.6 percent gain). The Federal Reserve reported that the U.S. industrial production rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in November, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent m-o-m decrease in October (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.3 percent m-o-m in November. In y-o-y terms, the industrial production surged 3.9 percent in November, following a downwardly revised 3.8 percent increase in the prior month (originally a 4.1 percent gain). Preliminary data released by IHS Markit indicated that the U.S. private sector growth in December expanded at the weakest pace in just over one-and-a-half years. According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 53.9 this month from 55.3 in November, signaling the weakest overall improvement in operating conditions since November 2017. Economists had expected the reading to drop to at 55.1. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. Meanwhile, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) decreased to 53.4 this month, down from 54.7 in the prior month, indicating a slowdown in the service sector activity. Economists had expected the reading to remain at 54.7.

Asian stock indexes closed higher on Monday, as markets were looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and a speech by President Xi Jinping on Tuesday to mark the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening up. Japan’s Nikkei outperformed, as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, supporting the Japanese large export-oriented companies.
European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.90% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.26% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.11% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures
traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in January settled at $51.57 (+0.19%). The crude oil prices rose slightly, correcting after Friday's decline. Market participants also continued to digest the latest data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by four to 873 during the week ended December 14. In the prior week, the oil-rig count declined by 10. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also decreased by four to 1,071, as the gas rig count was steady at 198 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 0. The U.S. rig count is up 141 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 930.

Gold traded at $1,238.10 (-0.06%). Gold prices consolidated near the opening level, as investors were cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. It is expected that the Fed will hike the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.50 percent at its December meeting but the focus of market participants will be on hints on the regulator’s future path.


IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


10:00

Eurozone

Harmonized CPI

10:00

Eurozone

Trade balance unadjusted

11:00

United Kingdom

CBI industrial order books balance

11:00

Germany

Bundesbank Monthly Report

13:30

Canada

Foreign Securities Purchases

13:30

U.S.

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index

15:00

U.S.

NAHB Housing Market Index

21:00

U.S.

Total Net TIC Flows

21:00

U.S.

Net Long-term TIC Flows


Tirgus fokuss

  • U.S industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November after moving down 0.2 percent in October
  • UK PM May: Was Crystal Clear About Assurances Needed On Brexit
  • U.S retail sales were $513.5 billion in November, an increase of 0.2 percent from the previous month
  • Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, its lowest since November 2014
Decembris 2018
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
Pr
Ot
Tr
Ce
Pk
Se
Sv
1
2
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Kotējumi

Visa informācija ir publicēta tikai informatīvos nolūkos un balstoties tikai uz šo informāciju, jūs varat gūt zaudējumus. Iepriekšējo periodu rādītāji nav uzticams identisku nākotnes rezultātu rādītājs. Lūdzu izlasiet pilnu atrunu.

Pieteikties atzvanam

Es saprotu un pieņemu Konfidencialitātes politiku un piekrītu, ka TeleTrade apstrādās un izmantos manu vārdu un kontaktinformāciju, lai sazinātos ar mani saistībā ar:

Lai uzlabotu mūsu apmeklētāju interneta pārlūkošanas pieredzi, TeleTrade savos interneta pakalpojumos izmanto sīkfailus jeb cookies. Turpinot aplūkot šo vietni, jūs piekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai. Ja jūs nepiekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai, Jūs varat izmainīt pārlūka iestatījumus jebkurā laikā. Lasīt vairāk

  • © 2011-2018 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd reģistrēta kā Kipras ieguldījumu firma Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) ar reģistrācijas numuru HE272810 un licencēta Kipras Vērtspapīru un biržu komisijā (Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission — CySEC), licences numurs 158/11. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd darbība tiek regulēta visās ES valstīs Eiropas Ekonomikas Zonas teritorijā brīvai pakalpojumu sniegšanai saskaņā ar Eiropas Savienības direktīvu “Par finanšu instrumentu tirgiem”.

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd fiziskās pārstāvniecības funkcijas Latvijas teritorijā pilda reģistrēts piesaistītais aģents SIA Rīgas Kapitāls atbilstoši pilnvarām, saskaņā ar Representation Agreement no 04.04.2017. Lūdzu noklikšķiniet uz saites, lai saņemtu papildu informāciju par finanšu regulējumu Latvijā: Financial and Capital Market Commission (FCMC)

  • Šajā mājas lapā ievietotā informācija ir publicēta tikai informatīvos nolūkos. Visi aprakstītie pakalpojumi un informācija ir saņemta no avotiem, kas uzskatāmi par uzticamiem. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") un/vai jebkuras trešās puses informācijas sniedzēji sniedz informāciju un pakalpojumus bez jebkādas garantijas. Izmantojot šo informāciju un pakalpojumus Jūs piekrītat, ka nekādos apstākļos TeleTrade nenes nekādu atbildību jebkurai fiziskai vai juridiskai personai par jebkādu zaudējumu vai bojājumu, ko pilnīgi vai daļēji izraisījusi šeit publicētās informācijas vai pakalpojumu izmantošana.

  • TeleTrade sadarbojas vienīgi ar regulētām finanšu institūcijām, lai nodrošinātu klientu līdzekļu drošību. Lūdzu, apskatiet visu banku un maksājumu pakalpojumu sniedzēju, kam atļauts veikt darbu klientu naudas līdzekļu apstrādē, sarakstu.

    Lūdzu, izlasiet Lietošanas noteikumi.

  • Lai uzlabotu mūsu apmeklētāju interneta pārlūkošanas pieredzi, TeleTrade DJ savos interneta pakalpojumos izmanto sīkfailus jeb cookies. Turpinot aplūkot šo vietni, jūs piekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai. Ja jūs nepiekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai, Jūs varat izmainīt pārlūka iestatījumus jebkurā laikā. Lasīt vairāk.

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd šobrīd sniedz savus pakalpojumus atbilstoši pārrobežu darbības principiem EEZ valstīs (izņemot Beļģiju) saskaņā ar MiFID pasu režīmu, kā arī atsevišķās trešajās valstīs ārpus EEZ. TeleTrade uz doto brīdi nesniedz pakalpojumus ASV iedzīvotājiem un pilsoņiem.

Sazināties ar mums
Ieteikt sociālajos tīklos
Online-konsultants
Pieteikties atzvanam
Uz augšu