Meklēt

Klientu atbalsts: (+357) 22314160

FX& CFD TIRDZNIECĪBAI IR AUGSTS RISKA LĪMENIS

Tirgus panorāma. 19 Septembris 2017

UZMANĪBU: “Tirgus panorāmas” materiāls ir pieejams pēc 6 stundām pēc tā publicēšanas. Lai operatīvi saņemtu šo materiālu, iesakām parakstīties.

I. Market focus:

19/09/2017

The release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September meeting was a key event in the morning session Tuesday. The RBA meeting ended on September 5 and, according to its outcomes, the regulator expectedly did not make any changes to the parameters of its monetary policy. In a document released today, it was noted that the RBA rather optimistically estimated the prospects of the national economy at the beginning of this month, but did not provide any signals regarding plans for tightening monetary policy. The RBA is restrained from action by the high indebtedness of households and the high exchange rate of the national currency, which further appreciation may result in a slower pick-up in growth and inflation.

The focus of market participants is on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will begin today and the outcomes of which will be announced tomorrow. The Fed’s gathering is the main scheduled event of the current week. The September meeting of the Fed will be extended so it will be accompanied by an update of economic forecasts and a press conference of its chair. The Fed is highly expected to remain its interest rates unchanged. But the main point will be whether the regulator will announce the start of the reduction of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, of which the bank’s officials have been saying for several months. In the light of expectations of the Fed meeting, activity in the markets in the coming days may be muted.

On Tuesday, volatility in the markets may raise the data on the European ZEW indices (09:00 GMT), as well as the U.S. housing statistics (building permits and housing starts; 12:30 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

  • The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reported Monday its housing market index (HMI) fell three points to 64 in September from a revised August reading of 67 (originally 68). Economists forecast the HMI to come in at 67. A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. All three HMI components recorded losses in September but kept at healthy levels. Current sales measure fell four points to 70, while the indicator charting sales expectations in the next six months decreased four points to 74. Meanwhile, the buyer traffic went down one point to 47. NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald said, “The recent hurricanes have intensified our members’ concerns about the availability of labor and the cost of building materials. Once the rebuilding process is underway, I expect builder confidence will return to the high levels we saw this spring.” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted, “Despite this month’s drop, builder confidence is still on very firm ground. With ongoing job creation, economic growth and rising consumer confidence, we should see the housing market continue to recover at a gradual, steady pace throughout the rest of the year.”

  • The U.S. Department of the Treasury released on Thursday Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July, which showed total net TIC outflow amounted to $7.3 billion compared to a downwardly revised $5.9 billion inflow recorded in June (originally an inflow of $7.7 billion). According to the report, net foreign private inflows stood at $6.0 billion, while net foreign official outflows were $13.3 billion. Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in July; net purchases were $5.1 billion. At the same time, the U.S. residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $3.8 billion. Taking into account transactions in both foreign and the U.S. securities, net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $1.3 billion in July, compared to an unrevised $34.4 billion recorded in June.

  • The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney, in a speech at the IMF’s event in Washington, said on Monday that with inflation set to remain above the regulator’s target for three years and with the supply side under pressure, a rate hike was likely to be justified in coming months. At the same time, he added that “any prospective increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.” Mr. Carney also warned that there remains "considerable risks" to the outlook for the UK’s economy. He also noted that Brexit was likely to lead to higher inflation in the UK, put pressure on investment, migration, and productivity as well.

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) report showed Tuesday the pace of growth of Australian house prices decelerated in the second quarter of 2017. The home price index (HPI) rose 1.9 percent q-o-q in the three months through June compared to a 2.2 percent q-o-q increase in the previous quarter. Economists had forecast the HPI to increase 1.1 percent in the second quarter. Sydney (+2.3 percent q-o-q) and Melbourne (+3.0 percent q-o-q) residential property prices recorded the strongest growth in the reviewed quarter, while prices in Perth (-0.8 percent q-o-q) and Darwin (-1.4 percent q-o-q) fell. Through the year, growth in residential property prices reached 10.2 percent in the second quarter of 2017. Sydney (+13.8 percent) and Melbourne (+13.8 percent) recorded the largest through the year growth of all capital cities, followed closely by Hobart (+12.4 percent).

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published minutes from its September 5 policy meeting, at which the benchmark cash rate was expectedly left unchanged at a record-low 1.5 percent. The minutes revealed the members of the Bank Board rather optimistically estimated the prospects of the national economy at the beginning of this month but did not provide any signals regarding plans for tightening monetary policy. The members acknowledged that growth in wages and inflation had remained low but stable. They also noted that “the appreciation of the Australian dollar over recent months, driven in part by a broad depreciation of the U.S. dollar, was weighing on domestic growth and contributing to subdued inflationary pressure. A further appreciation of the Australian dollar would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in growth and inflation.” The members also warned about risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, as “borrowing for housing had continued to outpace growth in incomes.”


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD  grew moderately, approaching to the high of September 13, due mainly to adjustments in the dollar position ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, the outcomes of which will be announced on Wednesday. Recall, the September meeting of the Fed will be extended, so it will be accompanied by an update of economic forecasts and a press conference of its Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed is highly expected to remain its interest rates unchanged. But the main point will be whether the regulator will announce the start of the reduction of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, of which the bank’s officials have been saying for several months. In addition, investors will focus on how Yellen characterizes recent economic developments for clues on the timing of further rate hikes. At the moment, Fed fund futures price in a 56.9 percent probability of the rate increase at the Fed's December meeting, compared to 41.3 percent a week ago. Today, market participants will pay attention to the data on the European ZEW indices and the U.S. housing statistics. Resistance level - $1.2091 (high of September 8). Support level - $1.1823 (low of August 31).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded higher on the back of the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar, gradually recovering after yesterday's collapse, caused by statements of the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney. In a speech at the IMF’s event in Washington, Mr. Carney said that with inflation set to remain above the regulator’s target for three years and with the supply side under pressure, a rate hike was likely to be justified in coming months. At the same time, he added that “any prospective increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.” Mr. Carney also warned that there remains "considerable risks" to the outlook for the UK’s economy. He also noted that Brexit was likely to lead to higher inflation in the UK, put pressure on investment, migration, and productivity as well. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3700 (psychological level). Support level - $1.3157 (low of September 14).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose sharply at the beginning of the session but then lost all gains due to the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting, at which the benchmark cash rate was expectedly left unchanged at a record-low 1.5 percent. The minutes revealed the members of the Bank Board rather optimistically estimated the prospects of the national economy at the beginning of this month but did not provide any signals regarding plans for tightening monetary policy. The members acknowledged that growth in wages and inflation had remained low but stable. They also noted that “the appreciation of the Australian dollar over recent months, driven in part by a broad depreciation of the U.S. dollar, was weighing on domestic growth and contributing to subdued inflationary pressure. A further appreciation of the Australian dollar would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in growth and inflation.” The members also warned about risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, as “borrowing for housing had continued to outpace growth in incomes.” Resistance level - AU0.8034 (high of September 15/18). Support level - AUD0.7921 (low of September 1).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose slightly, updating its July 27 high, as the demand for the yen, which is seen as one of the safe havens, continued to decrease, as there were no reports about new threats from North Korea. Today, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the North Korean nuclear issue must be resolved peacefully. Investors’ focus gradually turns to this week's meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). It is expected that the BoJ will leave its monetary policy unchanged. Resistance level - Y112.19 (high of July 26). Support level - Y109.53 (low of September 15).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,503.87

+0.15%

Dow

22,331.35

+0.28%

NASDAQ

6,454.64

+0.10%

Nikkei

20,299.38

+1.96%

Hang Seng

28,083.08

-0.27%

Shanghai

3,356.65

-0.18%

S&P/ASX

5,713.60

-0.12%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow recording new-all time highs for a second straight session, as investor appetite for riskier assets increased on fading concerns over North Korea and ahead of the FOMC meeting. The focus also was on the report of National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), which showed the housing market index (HMI) fell three points to 64 in September from a revised August reading of 67 (originally 68). Economists forecast the HMI to come in at 67. A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. All three HMI components recorded losses in September but kept at healthy levels. Current sales measure fell four points to 70, while the indicator charting sales expectations in the next six months decreased four points to 74. Meanwhile, the buyer traffic went down one point to 47. NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald said, “The recent hurricanes have intensified our members’ concerns about the availability of labor and the cost of building materials. Once the rebuilding process is underway, I expect builder confidence will return to the high levels we saw this spring.”

Asian stock indexes closed mainly lower on Tuesday, as investors deferred taking any major positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which is to start later today. At the same time, the Japanese stock benchmark surged, catching up to global equities gains and a weaker yen as Tokyo markets reopened after a holiday on Monday.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.22% (-1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.45% (-1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.30% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in October settled at $50.26 (-0.18%). The crude oil prices fell slightly, reacting to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for the oil production in U.S. shale fields in October. The EIA projected that crude oil output from several shale oil- and gas-producing regions would grow by 79,000 barrels a day in October. Total production for October is set to reach 6.08 million barrels a day. Investors await the meeting of the OPEC-Non OPEC Technical Committee (JTC) to monitor the implementation of the agreement on cutting oil output, which will be held on Wednesday, September 20, as well as the meeting of the Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), scheduled for Friday, September 22. In addition, market participants are preparing for data on oil inventories in the U.S. Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly data on the U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Tomorrow, the focus will be on official report on crude inventories in the U.S. from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Gold traded at $1307.00 (+0.01%). Gold prices consolidated near the opening level, as investors awaited the outcomes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, set to be released tomorrow. Meanwhile, the dynamics of the American currency provided some support to the gold prices. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.19 percent to 91.87 Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


08:00

Eurozone

Current account, unadjusted

09:00

Eurozone

ZEW Economic Sentiment

09:00

Germany

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

12:30

Canada

Manufacturing Shipments

12:30

U.S.

Housing Starts

12:30

U.S.

Building Permits

12:30

U.S.

Import Price Index

12:30

U.S.

Current account

22:45

New Zealand

Current Account

23:50

Japan

Trade Balance Total


Tirgus fokuss

  • US nonfarm payrolls rise more than expected in July
  • Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widens in June
  • Canada unemployment rate falls to lowest level since October 2008
  • Canada Ivey PMI falls less than expected in July
Septembris 2017
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
Pr
Ot
Tr
Ce
Pk
Se
Sv
1
2
3
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Kotējumi

Visa informācija ir publicēta tikai informatīvos nolūkos un balstoties tikai uz šo informāciju, jūs varat gūt zaudējumus. Iepriekšējo periodu rādītāji nav uzticams identisku nākotnes rezultātu rādītājs. Lūdzu izlasiet pilnu atrunu.

Lai uzlabotu mūsu apmeklētāju interneta pārlūkošanas pieredzi, TeleTrade savos interneta pakalpojumos izmanto sīkfailus jeb cookies. Turpinot aplūkot šo vietni, jūs piekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai. Ja jūs nepiekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai, Jūs varat izmainīt pārlūka iestatījumus jebkurā laikā. Lasīt vairāk

  • © 2011-2017 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd reģistrēta kā Kipras ieguldījumu firma Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) ar reģistrācijas numuru HE272810 un licencēta Kipras Vērtspapīru un biržu komisijā (Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission — CySEC), licences numurs 158/11. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd darbība tiek regulēta visās ES valstīs Eiropas Ekonomikas Zonas teritorijā brīvai pakalpojumu sniegšanai saskaņā ar Eiropas Savienības direktīvu “Par finanšu instrumentu tirgiem”.

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd fiziskās pārstāvniecības funkcijas Latvijas teritorijā pilda reģistrēts saistītais aģents SIA Rīgas Kapitāls atbilstoši pilnvarām, saskaņā ar Representation Agreement no 04.04.2017. Lūdzu noklikšķiniet uz saites, lai saņemtu papildu informāciju par finanšu regulējumu Latvijā: Financial and Capital Market Commission (FCMC)

  • Šajā mājas lapā ievietotā informācija ir publicēta tikai informatīvos nolūkos. Visi aprakstītie pakalpojumi un informācija ir saņemta no avotiem, kas uzskatāmi par uzticamiem. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") un/vai jebkuras trešās puses informācijas sniedzēji sniedz informāciju un pakalpojumus bez jebkādas garantijas. Izmantojot šo informāciju un pakalpojumus Jūs piekrītat, ka nekādos apstākļos TeleTrade nenes nekādu atbildību jebkurai fiziskai vai juridiskai personai par jebkādu zaudējumu vai bojājumu, ko pilnīgi vai daļēji izraisījusi šeit publicētās informācijas vai pakalpojumu izmantošana.

  • TeleTrade sadarbojas ar SafeCharge Limited, kas ir elektroniskās naudas iestāde (EMI), kuras darbība ir licencēta un to regulē Kipras centrālā banka, un kas ir pilntiesīgs MasterCard un Visa Europe biedrs. Tāpat mēs sadarbojamies ar Moneybookers un Neteller, kas piedāvā elektroniskā maciņa pakalpojumus un kuru darbība oficiāli ir atļauta un tiek regulēta Finanšu operāciju kontroles pārvaldē (FCA).

    Lūdzu, izlasiet Lietošanas noteikumi.

  • Lai uzlabotu mūsu apmeklētāju interneta pārlūkošanas pieredzi, TeleTrade DJ savos interneta pakalpojumos izmanto sīkfailus jeb cookies. Turpinot aplūkot šo vietni, jūs piekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai. Ja jūs nepiekrītat sīkfailu lietošanai, Jūs varat izmainīt pārlūka iestatījumus jebkurā laikā. Lasīt vairāk.

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd uz doto brīdi nesniedz pakalpojumus ASV iedzīvotājiem un pilsoņiem.

Sazināties ar mums
Ieteikt sociālajos tīklos
Online-konsultants
Pieteikties atzvanam
Uz augšu