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Tirgus panorāma. 23 Maijs 2017

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I. Market focus:

23/05/2017

At the beginning of Tuesday's session, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure, holding near its multi-month lows against major currencies. The dollar continues to be negatively impacted by speculations on the further development of events related to the investigation of Russia's interference in the U.S. presidential campaign in 2016. This investigation can potentially lead to an impeachment, although the U.S. presidential administration states that it will only confirm the absence of any secret agreement. The former FBI Director James Comey was scheduled to testify under oath on this issue on Wednesday, but yesterday it was reported that the hearing was postponed. This matter will continue to remain in the focus of market participants in the near future.

Tuesday’s session will very busy with macroeconomic reports. In the first half of the day, attention should be paid to the preliminary estimates of the European PMIs, as well as German data on business sentiments from Ifo (08:00 GMT). New home sales will be key a report of the second half of the day (14:00 GMT). Elsewhere, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will speak at 13:00 GMT and 19:00 GMT, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker at 21:00 GMT.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported on Monday the economic growth increased in April. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.49 last month from a downwardly revised +0.07 in March (originally +0.08). According to the report, two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, and only one category made a negative contribution to the index in April. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI rose to +0.46 in April from +0.01 in March. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in April, up from +0.05 in March. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.07 in March, and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to -0.08 in April from -0.06 in March.

  • Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stated on Monday that he expected two more interest-rate increases this year but noted that the Fed’s approach of removing accommodation should be “gradual and patient”. “I believe that we are making good progress in accomplishing our dual-mandate objectives of full employment and price stability. However, I am cognizant that progress toward our 2 percent inflation goal has been slow and, at times, uneven. I intend to be patient in critically assessing upcoming data to evaluate whether we are continuing to make progress in reaching our inflation objective,” Kaplan wrote in an essay.

  • The preliminary data from IHS Markit showed on Tuesday that growth of Japan’s manufacturing sector expanded at the weakest pace in six months in May. The Nikkei Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 52 in May from 52.7 in April. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “May’s PMI data signaled a broad-based slowdown in the growth of the manufacturing sector, with output, new orders and employment all rising at their slowest rates since last November. Although growth is being maintained at a decent clip, reports of “wait-and-see” attitudes amongst clients, excess warehouse inventories and recent sharp rises in raw material costs all served to undermine expansion during the month.”


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly higher, near yesterday's high. Experts noted that the dollar remained under pressure as investors fear that the political uproar in Washington could hinder President Donald Trump from implementing of his pro-growth agenda items, including tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure spending. Overall, the political uncertainty in the U.S. led to the fact that the dollar lost all the gains recorded after Trump's victory in November of 2016. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the U.S. currency will receive support since the U.S. economy is growing and the Fed is aimed at further raising its interest rates. On Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting will be released, which will be examined by investors for clues about a possible rate hike next month. Fed-funds futures now show a 78.5 percent probability of rate increase in June compared to 73.8 percent recorded on Friday and 78.5 percent a week earlier (on May 16). Today, market participants will focus on PMIs for Eurozone and the U.S. According to forecasts, PMI indices will show that the prospects for further improvement in the Eurozone’s economy are to be rather limited. The composite PMI of the Eurozone is expected to decline to 56.6 in May from 56.8 in April when it reached a six-year high. In the U.S., manufacturing PMI is forecast to come in at 53.0, up from 52.8 in April, while services PMI is seen to stay at  53.1. Resistance level – $1.1200 (psychological level). Support level – $1.1075 (low of May 18).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly lower, weighed by reports about the explosion in the foyer of Manchester Arena in England at the end of a performance by the pop star Ariana Grande, in which at least 22 people, including children, were killed and some 59 people wounded. The police said they were treating the case as a terror attack. It is the worst terrorist attack to hit Britain since the July 2005 suicide bomb attacks in central London in which 52 people were killed. Most likely, a tragic event in the UK will force market participants to be cautious in the near future. Later today, the pound may be impacted by the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) data on public sector net borrowing (PSNB) and the retail sales index. On Thursday, investors will assess this week preliminary data on the capital investments of the British companies in the first quarter, as well as the second estimate of the UK’s GDP growth in the first quarter. Resistance level - $1.3046 (high of May 18). Support level - $1.2828 (low of May 4).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose moderately, approaching a three-month high. Experts say that if the Australian dollar can keep above the AUD0.7450 level, it may reach the AUD0.7554 level (the highest value since May 2) in the short term. Overall, some factors that put pressure on the Australian currency have changed recently, and now the pair is benefiting from the weakening of the U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. However, the experts note also note that if the pair can not hold above the AUD0.7410 level, it will be bad news for investors who are betting on the growth of the Australian currency since a break below this threshold could trigger a decline by another five cents. Resistance level - AUD0.7554 (high of May 2). Support level - AUD0.7326 (low of May 9).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded slightly lower. The demand for the yen, which is considered a safe-haven asset, increased on the back of the reports about the explosion in Manchester Arena in England, in which at least 22 people were killed and some 59 people wounded. The police said they were treating the case as a terror attack. At the same time, the pressure on the yen was put by the preliminary data from IHS Markit, which showed that growth of Japan’s manufacturing sector expanded at the weakest pace in six months in May. The Nikkei Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 52 in May from 52.7 in April. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. IHS Markit noted that the May’s PMI data indicated a broad-based slowdown in the growth of the manufacturing sector, with output, new orders, and employment all rising at their slowest rates since last November. Resistance level - Y114.35 (high of May 10-11). Support level - Y110.23 (low of May 18).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,394.02

+0.52%

Dow

20,894.83

+0.43%

NASDAQ

6,133.62

+0.82%

Nikkei

19,613.28

-033%

Hang Seng

25,362.49

-0.11%

Shanghai

3,061.72

-0.45%

S&P/ASX

5,760.20

-0.19%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Monday, as investors continued chipping away at last Wednesday's significant loss, triggered by revelations connected to the FBI’s investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. The technology and utilities stocks led the gains. The industrial sector also finished ahead of the broader market, supported by news that during a weekend meeting between President Trump and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, they signed a multi-billion dollar arms deal.

Asian stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday, correcting after yesterday’s rally, supported by a surge in oil prices. Reports about an explosion in Manchester Arena in England provided additional pressure on investors’ sentiment. At least 22 people were killed and some 59 people wounded in the explosion on Monday in the foyer outside the main hall of the arena. The police said they were treating the case as a terror attack. The Australian equity gauge recorded a slight decline, reacting to the dynamics of the commodities market. The Japanese stock benchmark fell as the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, hurting the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.23% (-2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.40% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.08% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in July settled at 50.88 (-0.49%). The crude oil prices fell, correcting after yesterday's climb to the highest level since April 19, supported by expectations that top oil producers would extend the original OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal by six to nine months when they meet in Vienna on Thursday. The sources, however, said that the producers might also deepen the supply curbs. Market participants are awaiting weekly data on the U.S. crude oil stockpiles from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Gold traded at $$1260.30 (+0.16%). Gold prices fell slightly as the U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.09 percent to 96.89, its lowest level since October 10, 2016. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


06:00

Germany

GDP (finally)

07:00

France

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

07:00

France

Services PMI (preliminary)

07:30

Germany

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

07:30

Germany

Services PMI (preliminary)

08:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

08:00

Eurozone

Services PMI (preliminary)

08:00

Germany

IFO - Business Climate

08:00

Germany

IFO - Expectations

08:00

Germany

IFO - Current Assessment

08:30

United Kingdom

PSNB

13:45

U.S

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

13:45

U.S

Services PMI (preliminary)

14:00

U.S

New Home Sales

15:00

Eurozone

ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

19:15

U.S

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

21:00

U.S

FOMC Member Harker Speaks

22:45

New Zealand

Trade Balance


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