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Tirgus panorāma. 24 Marts 2017

UZMANĪBU: “Tirgus panorāmas” materiāls ir pieejams pēc 6 stundām pēc tā publicēšanas. Lai operatīvi saņemtu šo materiālu, iesakām parakstīties.

I. Market focus:

24/03/2017

At the beginning of the final session of the week, a vote in the U.S. Congress on repealing the previous U.S. President Barack Obama's health care reform (Obamacare) continued to be a key topic in the markets. Earlier it was reported that the vote should be held on Thursday, but it was delayed to today. The current U.S. president Donald Trump promised that such a bill would be adopted in the first two weeks of his presidency. But in word everything was much easier. Indeed, it turns out that there are not enough votes to repeal Obamacare in Congress, which is controlled by Republicans. Although the White House announces about significant progress in the negotiations, many of Trump's colleagues do not support his initiative, worrying that many Americans will lose health insurance if the health overhaul is repealed. Also, many congressmen do not support the Trump plan to bolster the U.S. economy by cutting taxes and drastically reducing government regulation. Voting in Congress is to be held today between 18:00 and 20:00 GMT. It should be noted that market trading volume at the moment of voting will be reduced, so volatility in the market can significantly rise.

In the first half of Friday’s session, the market participants’ attention will be attracted to the European data on PMI indices (preliminary estimates for March). In the second half of the day, focus will be on the Canadian data on consumer price indices and the U.S. data on durable goods orders. Both reports will be released at 12:30 GMT.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week but continued to point to a growing labor market. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits grew by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended March 18. It was the highest reading in seven weeks. Economists had expected 240,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were revised to 243,000 from an initially reported 241,000. The four-week moving average of claims rose only by 1,000 to 240,000 last week. It was the 107th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, the longest streak since 1970.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday the sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units in February, the highest level since July 2016. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 565,000 last month. January’s sales pace was revised up to 558,000 units from the originally reported 555,000 units. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 12.8 percent.

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Thursday repeated his call for the Fed to provide its plan to start reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet before raising interest rates again. "Once we come to consensus on those tradeoffs, I would like us to publish that as soon as possible. I think we would do ourselves a favor by giving the markets as much time as possible to understand it, prepare for it, so there are as few surprises as possible," Kashkari told reporters. He said he thought the publication of such a plan "could lead to a tightening in market conditions," especially on longer-term rates. Since policymakers cannot anticipate the scale of that reaction, "I'd want to know that before we move ahead with other interest rate increases," he said, because the Fed "may not want to subsequently raise rates for some more time before the data adjust."

  • Statistics New Zealand released the February figures for the county’s trade balance. According to the report, goods exports fell 5.5 y-o-y to NZD4.006 bln last month, with the fall being led by lower sales of ships, boats, and floating structures (-98.8 percent y-o-y) as the February 2016 figure was inflated by one-off export of a large drilling platform. Goods imports rose 4 percent y-o-y to NZD4.024 bln last month. As a result, the country’s trade balance ran a deficit of NZD18 mln in February, which, however, was narrower than a NZD257 mln gap recorded in January. Economists projected trade surplus of NZD160 mln.

  • Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated on Friday he saw "no reason" to withdraw the bank's massive monetary stimulus now, or increase its bond yield targets, as inflation was far from the regulator’s 2 percent target. "While some improvements have been observed in economic and price developments, there is still a long way to go to achieve our price target," Kuroda said in a speech at a Reuters Newsmaker event. While business conditions and prices are improving in Japan, risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside, as broader economic activity is not strong enough yet to drive up inflation, he noted. Kuroda also added that the regulator is not to increase its bond yield target just because overseas long-term interest rates are rising, as well as sees no need to modify the pace of purchases of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

  • IHS Markit announced on Friday that Japan’s preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 52.6 in March from 53.3 in February. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. It was the lowest reading since December 2016. Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “Although signalling a slower rate of expansion during March, the latest PMI data again point to a Japanese manufacturing economy expanding at a decent clip. Indeed, the data are consistent with manufacturing output expanding at an underlying trend rate of just below 2 percent”.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD fell slightly, updating yesterday's low, as the U.S. dollar was supported by the comments of the Fed’s officials. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan stated that two more rate hikes this year is a "reasonable" base case and he does not expect “pause” in the Fed's rate-tightening policy. At the same time, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari repeated his call for the Fed to provide its plan to start reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet before raising interest rates again. The further fall of the pair is suppressed as investors are cautious ahead of a vote in the U.S. Congress on repealing the previous U.S. President Barack Obama's health care reform (Obamacare). Earlier it was reported that the vote should be held on Thursday, but it was delayed to today, as the Republicans scrambled to find votes. Voting in Congress is to be held today between 18:00 and 20:00 GMT. Experts note that the dynamics of the currency pair EUR/USD will largely depend on the vote results. The pair can move both up and down, depending on what information will come from Washington. Resistance level – $1.0871 (high of December 8, 2016). Support level – $1.0705 (low of March 16).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly lower,  near yesterday's low, due to partial profit-taking after reaching a four-week high. In addition, market participants adjusted their positions ahead of the vote in the U.S. Congress on Trump’s healthcare bill, repealing Obamacare. Experts note, the vote will revealed how strong Trump’s political influence really is. A failure to pass the bill would cast doubt on Trump's ability to push through his other promised reforms, including those on  the tax and infrastructure fronts. Passing the healthcare bill will be seen by many investors as a sign that Trump is in control and can pass other parts of his agenda. This, in turn, will provide support to the dollar. Voting in Congress is to be held today between 18:00 and 20:00 GMT. Before the vote, the focus is expected be on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets.  In addition, the pair may react to the U.S. data on the durable goods orders and manufacturing and services PMIs. Resistance level - $1.2569 (high of February 24). Support level - $1.2324 (low of March 17).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded slightly lower. Experts noted that the pair was under pressure due to upcoming vote in the U.S. Congress, which was originally tabled for yesterday. The market participants consider the vote as test for the Trump presidency that could reveal whether it can muster the backing needed to push through economic measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending increases,  the prospects for which have underpinned the U.S. dollar appreciation since Trump’s election in November. A failure to pass the bill could endanger Trump's promises of tax overhaul. Resistance level - AUD0.7748 (high of March 21-22). Support level - AUD0.7539 (low of March 14).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose moderately, erasing almost all its yesterday’s losses. The reason behind this was the broad strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the U.S. bond yields on the back of "hawkish" comments by FOMC members Robert Kaplan and Neel Kashkari. The pair also reacted to the statements by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Mr. Kuroda stated he saw "no reason" to withdraw the bank's massive monetary stimulus now, or increase its bond yield targets, as inflation was far from the regulator’s 2 percent target. "While some improvements have been observed in economic and price developments, there is still a long way to go to achieve our price target," Kuroda said. While business conditions and prices are improving in Japan, risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside, as broader economic activity is not strong enough yet to drive up inflation, he added. The pair is expected to continue responding to the dynamics of the dollar, which will depend on the speech of the Fed’s officials Evans, Bullard, and Dudley, as well as voting on healthcare reform. Resistance level - 113.54 (high of March 16). Support level - Y110.25 (low of November 22, 2016).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,345.96

-0.11%

Dow

20,656.58

-0.02%

NASDAQ

5,817.69

-0.07%

Nikkei

19,262.53

+0.93%

Hang Seng

24,358.27

+0.13%

Shanghai

3,268.93

+0.63%


U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower on Thursday as a delay in a closely watched health-care vote raised jilters over the Trump administration's ability to push through pro-business policies, including tax cuts. A failure to pass the bill could endanger Trump's promises of tax reform, the prospects for which had bolstered the the market's rally since Donald Trump’s election in November. In the macroeconomic environment, the data from the Labor Department revealed the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week but continued to point to a growing labor market. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits grew by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended March 18. It was the highest reading in seven weeks. Economists had expected 240,000 new claims last week. The U.S. Commerce Department reported the sales of new single-family homes increased 6.1 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units in February, the highest level since July 2016. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 565,000 last month. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 12.8 percent.

Asian stock indexes closed higher on Thursday, as investors ignored weak performance of the Wall Street yesterday as the lawmakers delayed vote on Trump healthcare bill. The Japanese equity benchmark rose, encouraged by a slight softening in the yen, which is a positive factor for Japan’s export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.43% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.43% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.23% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in May settled at  $47.84 (+0.29%). The crude oil prices rose, but remain near four-month lows due to investor concerns that OPEC-led supply cuts were not yet reducing record crude oil inventories in the U.S. Investors wait for a meeting between OPEC and its allies, which is set to be held in Kuwait on Sunday. It is expected that at the meeting the oil producers could signal whether output curbs will be extended. In addition, market participants await weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes.

Gold traded at $1243.10 (-0.16%). Gold prices fell slightly, due to the partial profit-taking and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.21 percent to 99.97, recovering from the lowest level since February 2. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


07:45

France

GDP (finally)

08:00

France

Services PMI (preliminary)

08:00

France

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

08:30

Germany

Services PMI (preliminary)

08:30

Germany

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

09:00

Eurozone

Services PMI (preliminary)

09:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

12:00

U.S.

FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

12:30

Canada

Consumer Price Index

12:30

Canada

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core

12:30

U.S

Durable Goods Orders

13:05

U.S

FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

13:45

U.S

Services PMI (preliminary)

13:45

U.S

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

14:00

U.S

FOMC Member Dudley Speak


Tirgus fokuss

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
Marts 2017
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