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Tirgus panorāma. 24 Jūlijs 2017

UZMANĪBU: “Tirgus panorāmas” materiāls ir pieejams pēc 6 stundām pēc tā publicēšanas. Lai operatīvi saņemtu šo materiālu, iesakām parakstīties.

I. Market focus:

24/07/2017

A relative calm prevailed in the foreign exchange markets at the beginning of the new week. The main currency pairs hovered in the rages reached last week as there were no important economic data and events. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure. The dollar index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, held near a two-year low. The dynamics of the U.S. currency continued to be impacted by concerns about the worsening political woes in the U.S., as well as the growing doubts of investors that the Fed would continue to raise its rates this year.

The next important event for the markets will be the Fed’s meeting, the outcomes of which will be announced on Wednesday. The July meeting of the regulator is not extended (it will not be accompanied by the update of economic outlooks and the press conference of the regulator’s chair), so it is unlikely that any important decisions will be made on it. At the same time, it is expected that the Fed can cause the market participants to adjust their expectations by confirming its intention to continue tightening monetary policy. It is also likely that the regulator will signal a readiness to start reducing its huge balance sheet, although the decision on this matter is most likely to be taken in September.

Today, the focus of the markets will be on preliminary estimates of the PMIs (the European PMIs will be published at 07: 00-08: 00 GMT and the U.S. PMIs will be released at 13:45 GMT). In addition, attention should be paid to the U.S. existing home sales (14:00 GMT). A significant event of the day may be a statement by the U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the reform of the health care system. The White House reported that Trump would speak on this matter at 19:15 GMT. Last week, there was a lot of talk about Obamacare's future. At first, it was reported that the Republicans did not have enough votes to repeal the bill of the previous president, but towards the end of the week, the Republican Party representatives announced their readiness to vote on this issue this week.

The stock market participants’ attention is expected to be on the quarterly results of the companies as earnings report season is heating up in the U.S. Today, the main report will be Q2 earnings of Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), set to be published after the close of trading in the U.S.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada announced Friday that the Canadian retail sales increased 0.6 percent m-o-m to CAD 49.91 billion in May after growing 0.7 percent m-o-m in April (revised from an initially estimated 0.8 percent m-o-m gain). The result was better than the economists’ forecast, suggesting a 0.2 percent m-o-m advance. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m in May after climbing 1.3 percent m-o-m in the prior month (revised from an initially estimated 1.5 percent m-o-m surge), while economists had expected a flat m-o-m performance. According to the report, sales rose in 5 of 11 subsectors, representing 56 percent of total retail trade. The main contributors to the April gain were higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.4 percent m-o-m), food and beverage stores (+0.9 percent m-o-m), electronics and appliance stores (+1.2 percent m-o-m) and miscellaneous store retailers  (+2.7 percent m-o-m). At the same time, sales at general merchandise stores (-1.3 percent m-o-m) fell for the first time in five months, while gasoline stations (-0.6 percent m-o-m) posted their first sales drop in three months, despite a higher volume of gasoline sold. In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales increased 7.3 percent in May after a downwardly revised 6.9 percent advance in April (originally 7 percent).

  • Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1 percent m-o-m in June, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m increase in May. On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate advanced 1.0 percent last month after gaining 1.3 percent in the prior month. That was the lowest inflation rate since October of 2015. According to the report, prices grew in seven of the eight major components in the 12 months to June, with the shelter (+1.6 percent y-o-y) and the recreation, education and reading (+2.6 percent y-o-y) indexes contributing the most to the y-o-y rise in the CPI. This increase in the CPI was moderated by declines in the clothing and footwear index (-1.7 percent y-o-y) and the energy index (-1.3 percent y-o-y). Economists had predicted inflation would decrease 0.1 percent m-o-m but rose 1 percent y-o-y in June. The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index grew 0.9 percent y-o-y in June after gaining 0.9 percent in May.

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 764 during the week ended July 21. It should be noted that the fall was recorded for the second time in the last 27 weeks. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, was down two at 950, as the gas rig count also declined by one to 186.

  • IHS Markit announced Monday that Japan’s preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slid to 52.2 in July from 52.4 in June. That was the lowest reading since November 2016. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, senior economist at Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “July’s survey data indicated a further easing of growth in both orders and output from May’s recent highs. The slowdown was driven by stagnation in export orders, amid reports of weaker demand from South East Asia markets. Nonetheless, the sector continues to add jobs, with employment growth remaining amongst the best since the financial crisis, whilst optimism hit its highest level in five years of data collection.”


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded in a narrow range, near its 23-month high. Market participants took a breath after the recent rally in the pair and awaited new catalysts. Since early April, the euro has risen by about 10% amid reduced political and economic concerns in the Eurozone, and now some experts believe that it's time to resume sales. Today, the focus of the market will be on the results of the polls of the Eurozone’s supply managers, which are likely to indicate continued strong growth in the region's economy at the beginning of the third quarter. However, they are unlikely to show an acceleration in producer price growth, which would allow the European Central Bank to start tapering its monetary stimulus. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is projected to fall to 57.2 from 57.4 in June, while the PMI for the services sector is expected to improve to 55.5 from 55.4. Elsewhere, the data on business activity in the United States are also to be released today. It is expected that the PMI index for the manufacturing sector increased to 52.1 from 52.0, while the PMI for the service sector edged up to 54.3 from 54.2 in June. A significant event on Monday could also be a statement by the U.S. President Trump about the health care reform. Resistance level - $1.1713 (high of August 24, 2015). Support level - $1.1478 (low of July 20).

The currency pair GBP/USD rose slightly, refreshing Friday’s session high. The pair’s performance was somewhat impacted by news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for the UK economy 2017 (by 0.3 points, to 1.7 percent), and left its growth forecast for the UK in 2018 unchanged (at 1.5 percent) but noted one key risk facing the global economy was that the Brexit talks would end in failure. According to the IMF,  the UK’s growth forecast had been lowered based on its “tepid performance” so far this year and unclear impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom as well. With an empty economic calendar ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets.  Later this week, market participants will pay attention to the preliminary data on the UK’s GDP, and the outcomes of the Fed meeting. It is expected that GDP growth in Britain was only 0.3 percent in the second quarter, which is only marginally higher than that in the first three months of 2017. Inflation, which turned out to be above the target level, continues to put pressure on consumer spending, the major driver of the economic growth. Although the annual price increase in June unexpectedly slowed compared to May, economists and officials expect that inflation will continue to grow in the coming months. Resistance level - $1.3125 (high of July 18). Support level - $1.2932 (low of July 20).

The currency pair AUD/USD consolidated near the opening level, which is due to the lack of new drivers. The pair continued to remain under pressure after the latest comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor Guy Debelle. The official noted that the Australian central bank would not raise rates as some other central banks did, including the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC). He stressed that "No significance should be read into the fact the neutral rate was discussed at this particular meeting." In addition, Debelle said that appreciating exchange rate is not welcome in the RBA. "While an easier monetary policy elsewhere in the world should lead to faster growth in the world economy, which is good for the Australian economy, an appreciating exchange rate works against this," he said. Investors were also cautious ahead of the release of the Australian inflation statistics, scheduled for Wednesday. According to economists’ forecasts, the consumer index rose (CPI) rose by 0.4 percent q-o-q in the second quarter after an increase of 0.5 percent q-o-q in the first three months of 2017. Meanwhile, trimmed mean CPI is forecasted to show a 0.5 percent q-o-q gain in the second quarter after a similar change in the first quarter. Resistance level - AUDD0.8010 (high of May 19, 2015). Support level - AUD0.7786 (low of July 18).

The currency pair USD/JPY decreased moderately at the beginning of the session, reaching a low of June 16, but then recovered almost all losses. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure amid uncertainties about the policy direction of the Trump administration and the U.S. Congress after an unsuccessful attempt to reform health laws and against the background of investigations into Russian contacts with members of Trump's campaign. Market participants also await the outcomes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will be announced on Wednesday, as well as the release of a slew of important statistics in Japan. According to a Reuters polls, household spending in Japan increased by 0.6 percent y-o-y in June, while retail sales grew 2.3 percent m-o-m. The polls also showed that the unemployment rate in Japan was expected to show a drop to 3.0 percent in June from 3.1 percent in May, and the ratio of jobs to applicants to came in at 1.5, the highest level since February 1974. In addition, the core consumer price index, which includes petroleum products but excludes volatile prices for fresh products, was expected to demonstrate a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth in June. Resistance level - Y112.41 (high of July 20). Support level - Y110.64 (low of June 16).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,472.54

-0.04%

Dow

21,580.07

-0.15%

NASDAQ

6,387.75

-0.04%

Nikkei

19,975.67

-0.62%

Hang Seng

26,821.70

+0.43%

Shanghai

3,250.49

+0.39%

S&P/ASX

5,688.10

-0.61%


U.S. stock indexes closed marginally lower on Friday, as General Electric (GE; -2.9%) weighed on the industrial sector, dropping to its worst level since October 2015, after disappointing revenue growth for the company's industrial segment overshadowed better-than-forecast Q2 revenues and EPS. Additional pressure came from the energy sector, which was hit after reports of increased OPEC oil output sent crude oil into negative territory.

Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Monday, as investors were caution ahead of a week packed with earnings results and a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision in the U.S. Nearly 200 companies on the S&P 500 are expected to report this week, including Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), McDonald's Corp.(MCD), AT&T Inc. (T), Facebook Inc.(FB), Coca-Cola Co.(KO), Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN), Intel Corp. (INTC), Procter & Gamble Co.(PG), Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM) , Chevron Corp.(CVX), Merck & Co.(MRK), etc. The Japanese stock benchmark fell as the recent strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar put pressure on the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.24% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.51% (+1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.18% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded flat. Crude oil for delivery in September settled at $45.77 (0.00%). The crude oil prices were unchanged as traders awaited the outcomes of today’s meeting of OPEC and other producers. Investors also continued to analyze Friday's data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 764 during the week ended July 21. It should be noted that the fall was recorded for the second time in the last 27 weeks. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, was down two at 950, as the gas rig count also declined by one to 186.

Gold traded at $1252.80 (-0.16%). Gold prices fell slightly due to some strengthening of the U.S. currency and ahead of the Fed's meeting. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.07 percent to 93.92. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


06:15

Eurozone

ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

07:00

France

Services PMI (preliminary)

07:00

France

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

07:30

Germany

Services PMI (preliminary)

07:30

Germany

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

08:00

Eurozone

Services PMI (preliminary)

08:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

13:45

U.S.

Services PMI (preliminary)

13:45

U.S.

Manufacturing PMI (preliminary)

14:00

U.S.

Existing Home Sales


Tirgus fokuss

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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