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Tirgus panorāma. 24 Aprīlis 2017

UZMANĪBU: “Tirgus panorāmas” materiāls ir pieejams pēc 6 stundām pēc tā publicēšanas. Lai operatīvi saņemtu šo materiālu, iesakām parakstīties.

I. Market focus:

24/04/2017

At the beginning of a new week, the results of the first round of the presidential elections in France were a key theme in the financial markets. According to the French Interior Ministry's final figures, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!”, who received 23.75 percent of the vote, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party, who took 21.53 percent of vote, advanced to the second round of the presidential elections. Two other candidates, who according to projections, had chances to reach the second round, the Republican party's representative François Fillon and the leader of "La France Insoumise" (“France Unbowed”) movement Jean-Luc Mélenchon, got 19.91 percent and 19.64 percent, respectively. Overall, the results of the first round coincided with the polls. The second and final round of the presidential elections is scheduled for May 7th. The media also reported that François Fillon called on their supporters to vote for Emmanuel Macron, increasing his chances of winning in two weeks. The euro demonstrated a sharp increase, as a candidate advocating for the EU and its further integration topped the first round of the French presidential elections. Recall, in contrast to Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen advocates for protectionism, rejection of the euro currency, suspension of the Schengen agreement and withdrawal from the EU.

Monday’s session will not be very busy with important macroeconomic data releases. In the morning, attention should be paid to the German IFO indicators (at 08:00 GMT). The main events of the second half of the day could be two speeches of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari at 15:30 GMT and 19:15 GMT.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada reported on Friday the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in March, following a 0.2 percent m-o-m increase in February. In y-o-y terms, Canada’s inflation rate decelerated to 1.6 percent last month, from 2 percent the previous month. According to the report, prices grew in five of the eight major CPI components in the 12 months to March, with transportation (+4.6 percent y-o-y) and the shelter (+2.2 percent y-o-y) indexes contributing the most to the y-o-y rise in the CPI. This increase in the CPI was moderated by declines in the food index (-1.9 percent y-o-y) and the clothing and footwear index (-0.9 percent y-o-y), while the price index for household operations, furnishings and equipment was unchanged. Economists had predicted inflation would increase 0.4 percent m-o-m and 1.8 percent y-o-y in March. The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index grew 1.3 percent y-o-y in March after gaining 1.7 percent in February.

  • Preliminary data released by IHS Markit on Friday showed activities in the U.S. manufacturing and service sector in April eased to seven-month lows. According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 52.8 this month from 53.3 in March. Economists had expected the reading to come in at 53.5. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. At the same time, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) dropped to 52.5 in April from 52.8 in March. Economists had expected the reading to increase 53. Commenting on the flash PMI data Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The PMI data suggest the US economy lost further momentum at the start of the second quarter. The surveys are signalling a GDP growth rate of 1.1% after 1.7% in the first quarter.” He also noted: “The survey responses indicate that some froth has come off the economy since the post-election bounce seen at the end of last year. However, with inflows of new business picking up slightly in April and business optimism about the year ahead also brightening, there’s good reason to believe that growth could revive again in coming months.”

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Friday that the U.S. existing home sales surged 4.4 percent m-o-m to an annual rate of 5.71 mln units in March from compared to downwardly revised 5.47 mln units in February (originally 5.48 mln units). Economists had forecast home resales increasing to a 5.6 million-unit pace last month. March's sales pace was 5.9 percent above a year ago and surpasses January as the strongest month of sales since February 2007. The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun noted: "Bolstered by strong consumer confidence and underlying demand, home sales are up convincingly from a year ago nationally and in all four major regions despite the fact that buying a home has gotten more expensive over the past year."

  • The French Interior Ministry's final figures for the first round of the French presidential elections showed Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!” earned 23.75 percent of the vote, while Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party won 21.53 percent. The Republican party's representative François Fillon and the leader of "La France Insoumise" (“France Unbowed”) movement Jean-Luc Mélenchon, trailed, taking 19.91 percent and 19.64 percent, respectively. Macron and Le Pen  will now face off in the second and final round of the presidential elections, scheduled for May 7th. Mr. Fillon called on their supporters to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round, while Mélenchon refused to endorse anyone.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD rose sharply, reaching its high of March 27, as market participants cheered the results of the presidential elections in France. According to the French Interior Ministry's final figures, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!”, came out on top with 23.75 percent of the vote ahead of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party, on 21.53 percent. The Republican party's representative François Fillon and the leader of "La France Insoumise" (“France Unbowed”) movement Jean-Luc Mélenchon, got 19.91 percent and 19.64 percent, respectively. Mr. Fillon, as well as defeated Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon and Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve all urged voters to support Macron in the second round on 7 May. Thus, it will be more difficult for Marine Le Pen to compete with her rival, supported by a coalition of politicians from across the political spectrum. Overall, Macron’s victory in the first round had a positive impact on investor sentiment, as it inspired confidence in maintaining stability in France and the Eurozone as well, especially after the UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU. Resistance level – $1.0905 (high of March 27). Support level – $1.0681 (low of March 21).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly lower. The pair has been trading in a narrow range since April 19, after it rose sharply on April 18 on the back of the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for an early general election on June 8th. Experts believe that if Theresa May gets a significantly increased mandate following elections this will strengthen the UK’s position in Brexit negotiations with the EU as May will receive control over the process without any interference from the opposition. Political uncertainty has exerted pressure on the pound since the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, but in the past few months the currency has stabilized, particularly due to the fact the gloomy forecasts about the British economy  have not come true so far. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, the market participants’ focus will be on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Later this week, the focus of market participants will be on data on the UK’s Q1 GDP (due to on Friday). It is expected that the data will indicate a significant slowdown in economic growth in the UK in the first quarter of 2017. Economists predict that GDP growth was 0.4 percent, compared to a 0.7 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 2016. Resistance level - $1.2945 (high of October 3, 2016). Support level - $1.2478 (low of April 12).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded slightly higher, hitting its high of April 19, due mainly to the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. Some investors have reduced their positions in the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, as the failure to pass the healthcare reform bill in March put questions over Trump's ability to implement his other pro-growth agenda including tax reforms, infrastructure spending and deregulation policies. Investors’ focus also is on the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s statement, saying that the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax reform would increase deficits in the short term, but in long-term perspective it would boost the economy and tax receipts along with it. "We're looking for reforms that will pay for themselves with growth," Mnuchin said. "Under dynamic scoring, this will pay for itself, under static scoring, there'll be short term issues." Resistance level - AUD0.7608  (high of April 17). Support level - AUD0.7471 (low of April 11-12).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose significantly, reaching its high of April 11, as demand for safe haven assets decreased  in response to the results of the presidential elections in France. According to the French Interior Ministry's final figures, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!”, came out on top with 23.75 percent of the vote ahead of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party, on 21.53 percent. The Republican party's representative François Fillon and the leader of "La France Insoumise" (“France Unbowed”) movement Jean-Luc Mélenchon trailed, taking 19.91 percent and 19.64 percent, respectively. Investors cheered the fact a candidate advocating for the EU and its further integration topped the first round of the French presidential elections. In contrast to Macron, Le Pen advocates for protectionism, rejection of the euro currency, suspension of the Schengen agreement and withdrawal from the EU. Resistance level - Y111.57 (high of April 10). Support level - Y108.14 (low of November 17, 2016).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,348.69

-0.30%

Dow

20,547.76

-0.15%

NASDAQ

5,910.52

-0.11%

Nikkei

18,875.88

+1.37%

Hang Seng

24,139.48

+0.41%

Shanghai

3,129.78

-1.37%


U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Friday as investors preferred not to make big bets ahead of the first round of the French presidential elections over the weekend. However, a set of upbeat quarterly reports and an update on tax reform plans from White House helped keep losses in check. On the macroeconomic front, preliminary data released by IHS Markit  showed activities in the U.S. manufacturing and service sector in April eased to seven-month lows. According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 52.8 this month from 53.3 in March. Economists had expected the reading to come in at 53.5. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. At the same time, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) dropped to 52.5 in April from 52.8 in March. Economists had expected the reading to increase 53. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that the U.S. existing home sales surged 4.4 percent m-o-m to an annual rate of 5.71 mln units in March from compared to downwardly revised 5.47 mln units in February (originally 5.48 mln units). Economists had forecast home resales increasing to a 5.6 million-unit pace last month. March's sales pace was 5.9 percent above a year ago and surpasses January as the strongest month of sales since February 2007.

Asian stock indexes closed mainly higher, as investors favored candidate won the first round of the French presidential elections. According to the French Interior Ministry's final figures, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!”, came out on top with 23.75 percent of the vote ahead of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party, on 21.53 percent. Macron and Le Pen  will now face off in the second and final round of the presidential elections, scheduled for May 7th. The Japanese equity benchmark outperformed as the yen retreated as demand for safe haven assets decreased, providing support to the shares of export-oriented companies. Meanwhile, the Chinese equity gauge tumbled as concern grew that authorities would step up measures to crack down on leveraged trading.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.31% (+8 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.35% (+10 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.04% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in June settled at $$49.92 (+0.60%). The crude oil prices rose, correcting after Friday’s sharp decline, caused by Baker Hughes’ weekly report, which showed that the number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. rose for a 14th consecutive week. According to the report, the U.S. drillers added five oil rigs in the week to April 21, bringing the total oil rig count to 688, highest level since the week ending April 24, 2015. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also rose by 10 to 857. Some support was provided by the comments of  Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh, who said he saw positive signals that OPEC and non-OPEC countries might extend the agreement to cut outputs.

Gold traded at $1271.10 (-1.03%). Gold prices fell significantly, as demand for safe haven assets decreased in response to the results of the first round of presidential elections in France. According to the French Interior Ministry's final figures, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the political movement “En Marche!”, came out on top with 23.75 percent of the vote ahead of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far right National Front party, on 21.53 percent. However, the further fall in gold prices was limited by broad weakening of the U.S. currency. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.91 percent to 99.07. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


08:00

Germany

IFO - Business Climate

08:00

Germany

IFO - Current Assessment

08:00

Germany

IFO - Expectations

12:30

U.S.

Chicago Federal National Activity Index

15:30

U.S.

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

19:15

U.S.

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks


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